DDM Analysis: ULKER.IS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$421.51 - $1,018.74	$625.75
Multi-Stage	$304.31 - $331.99	$317.90
Blended Fair Value	$471.83
Current Price	$104.50
Upside	351.51%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	10.11%	0.99	0.54	0.54	0.75	0.02	0.00	0.28	0.19	0.31	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	82.56%	0.52%	-28.14%	4,037.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	41.66%	-37.37%	15.80%	-28.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.86%	0.53%	1.73%	4.88%	0.09%	0.00%	1.59%	0.88%	1.68%	1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,200.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,246.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,953.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,440.13	900.08	540.05
Cash Retained (M)	3,953.74	3,953.74	3,953.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,440.13	-900.08	-540.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,513.61	3,053.66	3,413.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	369.49	369.49	369.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	6.80	8.26	9.24
LTM Dividend per Share	8.79	8.79	8.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share	6.80	8.26	9.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	15.59	17.05	18.03
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$421.51	$625.75	$1,018.74
Upside / Downside	303.35%	498.80%	874.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,200.66	7,668.70	8,167.17	8,698.03	9,263.40	9,865.52	10,161.49
Payout Ratio	45.09%	54.07%	63.06%	72.04%	81.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,246.92	4,146.74	5,149.82	6,265.78	7,505.06	8,878.97	9,399.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,754.77	3,790.36	3,825.95
Year 2 PV (M)	4,222.27	4,302.69	4,383.87
Year 3 PV (M)	4,651.64	4,785.17	4,921.23
Year 4 PV (M)	5,045.00	5,239.02	5,438.58
Year 5 PV (M)	5,404.39	5,665.43	5,936.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	89,362.33	93,678.57	98,159.99
Equity Value (M)	112,440.40	117,461.23	122,666.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	369.49	369.49	369.49
Fair Value	$304.31	$317.90	$331.99
Upside / Downside	191.21%	204.21%	217.69%

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Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi A.S. (ULKER.IS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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