DDM Analysis: IBM

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$70.27 - $105.07	$86.79
Multi-Stage	$112.03 - $122.51	$117.17
Blended Fair Value	$101.98
Current Price	$282.16
Upside	-63.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.50%	3.72%	6.50	6.39	6.29	6.21	6.13	6.03	5.99	5.82	5.56	5.18
YoY Growth	-	-	1.77%	1.55%	1.35%	1.24%	1.58%	0.72%	2.91%	4.76%	7.33%	14.82%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.61%	3.36%	4.80%	4.77%	4.81%	5.69%	4.38%	3.97%	3.34%	3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,907.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,227.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,680.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,581.40	988.38	593.03
Cash Retained (M)	1,680.00	1,680.00	1,680.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,581.40	-988.38	-593.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	98.60	691.63	1,086.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	945.85	945.85	945.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.73	1.15
LTM Dividend per Share	6.58	6.58	6.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.73	1.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.69	7.31	7.73
WACC / Discount Rate	8.97%	8.97%	8.97%
Growth Rate	-0.50%	0.50%	1.50%
Fair Value	$70.27	$86.79	$105.07
Upside / Downside	-75.10%	-69.24%	-62.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,907.00	7,946.26	7,985.71	8,025.36	8,065.21	8,105.25	8,348.41
Payout Ratio	78.75%	81.00%	83.25%	85.50%	87.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,227.00	6,436.66	6,648.25	6,861.78	7,077.27	7,294.73	7,722.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.97%	8.97%	8.97%
Growth Rate	-0.50%	0.50%	1.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,848.24	5,907.02	5,965.80
Year 2 PV (M)	5,488.28	5,599.16	5,711.14
Year 3 PV (M)	5,146.72	5,303.47	5,463.36
Year 4 PV (M)	4,823.07	5,019.91	5,222.72
Year 5 PV (M)	4,516.81	4,748.40	4,989.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	80,142.06	84,251.21	88,527.22
Equity Value (M)	105,965.17	110,829.16	115,879.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	945.85	945.85	945.85
Fair Value	$112.03	$117.17	$122.51
Upside / Downside	-60.29%	-58.47%	-56.58%

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Financial Statements

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International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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