DDM Analysis: HSY

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$150.76 - $381.30	$227.11
Multi-Stage	$111.58 - $121.51	$116.46
Blended Fair Value	$171.79
Current Price	$184.11
Upside	-6.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.19%	9.43%	5.34	4.37	3.81	3.37	3.15	3.00	2.77	2.59	2.46	2.34
YoY Growth	-	-	22.02%	14.71%	12.98%	7.06%	4.98%	8.50%	6.89%	5.37%	4.90%	8.11%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.12%	2.21%	1.48%	1.56%	1.98%	2.18%	2.43%	2.67%	2.26%	2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,359.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,084.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	275.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	271.97	169.98	101.99
Cash Retained (M)	275.39	275.39	275.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-271.97	-169.98	-101.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.42	105.41	173.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	203.33	203.33	203.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.52	0.85
LTM Dividend per Share	5.33	5.33	5.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.52	0.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.35	5.85	6.19
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$150.76	$227.11	$381.30
Upside / Downside	-18.11%	23.36%	107.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,359.83	1,448.22	1,542.36	1,642.61	1,749.38	1,863.09	1,918.98
Payout Ratio	79.75%	81.80%	83.85%	85.90%	87.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,084.45	1,184.63	1,293.25	1,410.99	1,538.57	1,676.78	1,775.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,074.21	1,084.39	1,094.57
Year 2 PV (M)	1,063.39	1,083.65	1,104.09
Year 3 PV (M)	1,052.06	1,082.26	1,113.03
Year 4 PV (M)	1,040.25	1,080.26	1,121.40
Year 5 PV (M)	1,028.02	1,077.67	1,129.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	17,428.74	18,270.56	19,144.59
Equity Value (M)	22,686.66	23,678.77	24,706.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	203.33	203.33	203.33
Fair Value	$111.58	$116.46	$121.51
Upside / Downside	-39.40%	-36.75%	-34.00%

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The Hershey Company (HSY)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener