DDM Analysis: ELSA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,716.35 - $3,956.46	$2,508.17
Multi-Stage	$1,311.88 - $1,428.14	$1,368.98
Blended Fair Value	$1,938.57
Current Price	$468.00
Upside	314.23%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.84%	5.29%	27.57	25.90	7.45	10.24	12.21	9.46	5.08	4.34	10.45	39.75
YoY Growth	-	-	6.45%	247.65%	-27.23%	-16.15%	29.01%	86.34%	16.99%	-58.44%	-73.72%	141.32%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.53%	6.82%	2.39%	3.48%	3.55%	6.27%	1.34%	0.93%	2.69%	11.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	607,166.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	480,141.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	127,025.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	121,433.20	75,895.75	45,537.45
Cash Retained (M)	127,025.00	127,025.00	127,025.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-121,433.20	-75,895.75	-45,537.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,591.80	51,129.25	81,487.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,298.50	7,298.50	7,298.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.77	7.01	11.16
LTM Dividend per Share	65.79	65.79	65.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.77	7.01	11.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	66.55	72.79	76.95
WACC / Discount Rate	9.59%	9.59%	9.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,716.35	$2,508.17	$3,956.46
Upside / Downside	266.74%	435.93%	745.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	607,166.00	646,631.79	688,662.86	733,425.94	781,098.63	831,870.04	856,826.14
Payout Ratio	79.08%	81.26%	83.45%	85.63%	87.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	480,141.00	525,473.85	574,671.38	628,044.47	685,928.06	748,683.04	792,564.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.59%	9.59%	9.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	474,984.87	479,487.10	483,989.32
Year 2 PV (M)	469,544.65	478,488.16	487,516.04
Year 3 PV (M)	463,848.74	477,164.17	490,732.02
Year 4 PV (M)	457,923.81	475,534.26	493,647.84
Year 5 PV (M)	451,794.88	473,616.74	496,273.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,256,682.13	7,607,182.59	7,971,097.53
Equity Value (M)	9,574,779.08	9,991,473.03	10,423,256.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,298.50	7,298.50	7,298.50
Fair Value	$1,311.88	$1,368.98	$1,428.14
Upside / Downside	180.32%	192.52%	205.16%

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PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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