DDM Analysis: ECL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$84.28 - $140.99	$109.21
Multi-Stage	$94.72 - $103.59	$99.07
Blended Fair Value	$104.14
Current Price	$273.86
Upside	-61.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.74%	6.79%	2.33	2.16	2.11	1.98	1.96	1.94	1.74	1.57	1.50	1.40
YoY Growth	-	-	7.61%	2.41%	6.43%	1.00%	1.43%	11.36%	10.65%	4.96%	6.69%	16.35%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.92%	0.95%	1.28%	1.12%	0.92%	1.24%	0.97%	1.15%	1.19%	1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,984.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	725.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,258.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	396.92	248.08	148.85
Cash Retained (M)	1,258.80	1,258.80	1,258.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-396.92	-248.08	-148.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	861.88	1,010.73	1,109.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	285.45	285.45	285.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.02	3.54	3.89
LTM Dividend per Share	2.54	2.54	2.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.02	3.54	3.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.56	6.08	6.43
WACC / Discount Rate	9.39%	9.39%	9.39%
Growth Rate	2.62%	3.62%	4.62%
Fair Value	$84.28	$109.21	$140.99
Upside / Downside	-69.23%	-60.12%	-48.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,984.60	2,056.36	2,130.71	2,207.75	2,287.58	2,370.29	2,441.40
Payout Ratio	36.57%	47.26%	57.94%	68.63%	79.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	725.80	971.78	1,234.60	1,515.15	1,814.37	2,133.26	2,258.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.39%	9.39%	9.39%
Growth Rate	2.62%	3.62%	4.62%
Year 1 PV (M)	879.81	888.38	896.95
Year 2 PV (M)	1,011.96	1,031.78	1,051.79
Year 3 PV (M)	1,124.38	1,157.57	1,191.41
Year 4 PV (M)	1,219.00	1,267.22	1,316.85
Year 5 PV (M)	1,297.60	1,362.07	1,429.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	21,504.32	22,572.75	23,683.23
Equity Value (M)	27,037.07	28,279.77	29,569.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	285.45	285.45	285.45
Fair Value	$94.72	$99.07	$103.59
Upside / Downside	-65.41%	-63.82%	-62.17%

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Ecolab Inc. (ECL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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