DDM Analysis: BLL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$139.33 - $221.61	$176.76
Multi-Stage	$181.70 - $199.42	$190.39
Blended Fair Value	$183.58
Current Price	$69.49
Upside	164.18%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	13.60%	14.72%	0.85	0.80	0.69	0.64	0.48	0.45	0.29	0.25	0.25	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	6.55%	15.66%	8.79%	32.85%	6.20%	55.42%	15.60%	-1.24%	-3.32%	21.68%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.23%	0.89%	0.82%	0.98%	0.82%	1.14%	0.78%	0.70%	0.72%	0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,811.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	361.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,450.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	762.20	476.38	285.83
Cash Retained (M)	3,450.00	3,450.00	3,450.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-762.20	-476.38	-285.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,687.80	2,973.63	3,164.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	285.98	285.98	285.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share	9.40	10.40	11.06
LTM Dividend per Share	1.26	1.26	1.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	9.40	10.40	11.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	10.66	11.66	12.33
WACC / Discount Rate	8.78%	8.78%	8.78%
Growth Rate	1.05%	2.05%	3.05%
Fair Value	$139.33	$176.76	$221.61
Upside / Downside	100.50%	154.37%	218.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,811.00	3,889.05	3,968.71	4,049.99	4,132.94	4,217.58	4,344.11
Payout Ratio	9.47%	25.58%	41.68%	57.79%	73.89%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	361.00	994.74	1,654.30	2,340.45	3,054.01	3,795.83	4,018.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.78%	8.78%	8.78%
Growth Rate	1.05%	2.05%	3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)	905.50	914.46	923.42
Year 2 PV (M)	1,370.77	1,398.03	1,425.57
Year 3 PV (M)	1,765.32	1,818.25	1,872.23
Year 4 PV (M)	2,096.87	2,181.11	2,267.87
Year 5 PV (M)	2,372.36	2,492.10	2,616.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	43,451.56	45,644.58	47,925.27
Equity Value (M)	51,962.38	54,448.53	57,030.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	285.98	285.98	285.98
Fair Value	$181.70	$190.39	$199.42
Upside / Downside	161.47%	173.98%	186.98%

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Ball Corporation (BLL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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