DDM Analysis: ARCC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$108.87 - $396.44	$340.59
Multi-Stage	$52.31 - $57.10	$54.66
Blended Fair Value	$197.63
Current Price	$20.41
Upside	868.28%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.42%	9.40%	1.67	1.51	1.33	1.01	0.99	1.01	0.96	0.94	0.70	0.71
YoY Growth	-	-	10.48%	13.05%	31.41%	2.21%	-2.16%	5.79%	2.18%	34.59%	-2.05%	4.96%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.52%	7.40%	7.30%	4.84%	5.31%	9.42%	5.48%	5.92%	4.01%	4.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,363.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,248.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	115.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	272.60	170.38	102.23
Cash Retained (M)	115.00	115.00	115.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-272.60	-170.38	-102.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-157.60	-55.38	12.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	683.75	683.75	683.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.23	-0.08	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	1.83	1.83	1.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.23	-0.08	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.59	1.74	1.84
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$108.87	$340.59	$396.44
Upside / Downside	433.40%	1,568.76%	1,842.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,363.00	1,451.60	1,545.95	1,646.44	1,753.45	1,867.43	1,923.45
Payout Ratio	91.56%	91.25%	90.94%	90.63%	90.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,248.00	1,324.58	1,405.85	1,492.08	1,583.59	1,680.69	1,779.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,225.78	1,237.40	1,249.02
Year 2 PV (M)	1,203.95	1,226.88	1,250.03
Year 3 PV (M)	1,182.49	1,216.44	1,251.02
Year 4 PV (M)	1,161.40	1,206.06	1,252.00
Year 5 PV (M)	1,140.67	1,195.77	1,252.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	29,849.35	31,291.08	32,788.00
Equity Value (M)	35,763.64	37,373.63	39,043.05
Shares Outstanding (M)	683.75	683.75	683.75
Fair Value	$52.31	$54.66	$57.10
Upside / Downside	156.27%	167.81%	179.77%

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Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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