Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

APA Corporation (APA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.84 - $46.76$39.02
Multi-Stage$59.22 - $65.17$62.14
Blended Fair Value$50.58
Current Price$24.28
Upside108.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.25%-0.33%0.970.850.570.140.341.031.051.041.041.04
YoY Growth--14.61%48.79%298.08%-57.72%-67.29%-1.57%0.53%0.26%0.53%3.29%
Dividend Yield--4.61%2.39%1.58%0.35%1.89%24.71%3.00%2.71%2.03%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,509.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)364.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,145.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)301.80188.63113.18
Cash Retained (M)1,145.001,145.001,145.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-301.80-188.63-113.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)843.20956.381,031.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.00364.00364.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.322.632.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.322.632.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.323.633.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Fair Value$31.84$39.02$46.76
Upside / Downside31.14%60.69%92.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,509.001,488.871,469.021,449.421,430.091,411.021,453.35
Payout Ratio24.12%37.30%50.47%63.65%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)364.00555.31741.46922.541,098.661,269.921,344.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Year 1 PV (M)509.73514.95520.16
Year 2 PV (M)624.72637.58650.57
Year 3 PV (M)713.48735.62758.21
Year 4 PV (M)779.93812.37845.81
Year 5 PV (M)827.50870.74915.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,101.7419,047.6320,032.65
Equity Value (M)21,557.1022,618.8923,723.18
Shares Outstanding (M)364.00364.00364.00
Fair Value$59.22$62.14$65.17
Upside / Downside143.92%155.93%168.42%

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