DDM Analysis: ABEV3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.86 - $43.43	$28.50
Multi-Stage	$15.72 - $17.10	$16.40
Blended Fair Value	$22.45
Current Price	$12.09
Upside	85.70%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.42%	-10.32%	0.26	0.76	0.78	0.71	0.44	0.50	0.56	0.56	0.66	0.73
YoY Growth	-	-	-65.98%	-2.62%	10.14%	62.26%	-12.97%	-10.70%	-0.06%	-14.62%	-10.09%	-4.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.91%	6.47%	5.66%	4.71%	2.90%	4.23%	3.34%	2.31%	3.59%	3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	16,037.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14,642.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,394.43

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,207.41	2,004.63	1,202.78
Cash Retained (M)	1,394.43	1,394.43	1,394.43
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,207.41	-2,004.63	-1,202.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1,812.99	-610.20	191.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15,720.83	15,720.83	15,720.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.12	-0.04	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.93	0.93	0.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.12	-0.04	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.82	0.89	0.94
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.86	$28.50	$43.43
Upside / Downside	64.26%	135.73%	259.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	16,037.07	17,079.48	18,189.65	19,371.97	20,631.15	21,972.18	22,631.34
Payout Ratio	91.30%	91.04%	90.78%	90.52%	90.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14,642.64	15,549.84	16,513.10	17,535.89	18,621.88	19,774.96	20,933.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.84%	9.84%	9.84%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	14,024.46	14,157.39	14,290.32
Year 2 PV (M)	13,432.26	13,688.11	13,946.37
Year 3 PV (M)	12,864.97	13,234.27	13,610.58
Year 4 PV (M)	12,321.53	12,795.38	13,282.77
Year 5 PV (M)	11,800.94	12,370.93	12,962.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	182,761.50	191,588.95	200,754.25
Equity Value (M)	247,205.65	257,835.03	268,847.02
Shares Outstanding (M)	15,720.83	15,720.83	15,720.83
Fair Value	$15.72	$16.40	$17.10
Upside / Downside	30.06%	35.66%	41.45%

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Ambev S.A. (ABEV3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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