Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (6862.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.38 - $77.41$48.88
Multi-Stage$25.37 - $27.62$26.48
Blended Fair Value$37.68
Current Price$13.59
Upside177.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS66.58%0.00%1.120.100.120.020.130.090.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth--996.34%-14.80%600.60%-86.81%48.58%2.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.51%0.81%0.61%0.12%0.26%0.31%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,707.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,625.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,082.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,741.531,088.45653.07
Cash Retained (M)2,082.352,082.352,082.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,741.53-1,088.45-653.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.83993.901,429.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,415.005,415.005,415.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.38$48.88$77.41
Upside / Downside145.63%259.67%469.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,707.649,273.639,876.4210,518.3911,202.0811,930.2212,288.12
Payout Ratio76.09%78.87%81.65%84.43%87.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,625.287,314.008,064.258,881.139,770.1410,737.2011,366.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,612.766,675.446,738.12
Year 2 PV (M)6,592.056,717.616,844.35
Year 3 PV (M)6,563.766,752.186,944.18
Year 4 PV (M)6,528.506,779.577,037.81
Year 5 PV (M)6,486.826,800.137,125.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)104,588.86109,640.54114,885.56
Equity Value (M)137,372.74143,365.47149,575.45
Shares Outstanding (M)5,415.005,415.005,415.00
Fair Value$25.37$26.48$27.62
Upside / Downside86.67%94.82%103.26%

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