DDM Analysis: 6186.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.58 - $6.51	$5.53
Multi-Stage	$7.60 - $8.31	$7.95
Blended Fair Value	$6.74
Current Price	$5.21
Upside	29.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-0.78%	0.00%	0.29	0.28	0.24	0.37	0.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	1.83%	19.73%	-37.14%	26.36%	-0.72%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.60%	7.45%	4.02%	4.39%	1.94%	3.65%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,264.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,086.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,177.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,252.87	783.04	469.82
Cash Retained (M)	1,177.52	1,177.52	1,177.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,252.87	-783.04	-469.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-75.34	394.48	707.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,063.03	9,063.03	9,063.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.04	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.56	0.56	0.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.04	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.55	0.60	0.64
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.58	$5.53	$6.51
Upside / Downside	-12.05%	6.16%	24.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,264.33	6,201.68	6,139.67	6,078.27	6,017.49	5,957.31	6,136.03
Payout Ratio	81.20%	82.96%	84.72%	86.48%	88.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,086.80	5,145.05	5,201.62	5,256.55	5,309.86	5,361.58	5,675.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,637.43	4,684.75	4,732.07
Year 2 PV (M)	4,225.85	4,312.53	4,400.09
Year 3 PV (M)	3,849.14	3,968.18	4,089.64
Year 4 PV (M)	3,504.56	3,649.81	3,799.52
Year 5 PV (M)	3,189.56	3,355.65	3,528.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	49,468.74	52,044.69	54,726.85
Equity Value (M)	68,875.28	72,015.61	75,276.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,063.03	9,063.03	9,063.03
Fair Value	$7.60	$7.95	$8.31
Upside / Downside	45.87%	52.52%	59.42%

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China Feihe Limited (6186.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener