DDM Analysis: 3868.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.74 - $2.59	$2.14
Multi-Stage	$3.39 - $3.72	$3.55
Blended Fair Value	$2.85
Current Price	$1.15
Upside	147.42%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-13.54%	0.00%	0.04	0.09	0.10	0.14	0.12	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-58.00%	-12.28%	-24.17%	15.46%	49.81%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.82%	6.34%	3.99%	3.19%	2.24%	3.86%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,760.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,061.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	698.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	352.12	220.08	132.05
Cash Retained (M)	698.70	698.70	698.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-352.12	-220.08	-132.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	346.58	478.62	566.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,299.84	8,299.84	8,299.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	7.59%	7.59%	7.59%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.74	$2.14	$2.59
Upside / Downside	50.87%	86.12%	124.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,760.61	1,743.01	1,725.58	1,708.32	1,691.24	1,674.33	1,724.55
Payout Ratio	60.32%	66.25%	72.19%	78.13%	84.06%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,061.91	1,154.78	1,245.68	1,334.64	1,421.70	1,506.89	1,595.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.59%	7.59%	7.59%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,062.52	1,073.36	1,084.20
Year 2 PV (M)	1,054.59	1,076.22	1,098.07
Year 3 PV (M)	1,039.63	1,071.79	1,104.59
Year 4 PV (M)	1,018.98	1,061.21	1,104.74
Year 5 PV (M)	993.75	1,045.49	1,099.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	22,943.53	24,138.25	25,382.23
Equity Value (M)	28,112.99	29,466.32	30,873.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,299.84	8,299.84	8,299.84
Fair Value	$3.39	$3.55	$3.72
Upside / Downside	194.54%	208.72%	223.46%

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Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (3868.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener