Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AEON REIT Investment Corporation (3292.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$221,541.11 - $447,394.55$308,985.88
Multi-Stage$276,058.96 - $301,860.49$288,720.50
Blended Fair Value$298,853.19
Current Price$125,400.00
Upside138.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.56%11.55%6,586.686,711.826,323.466,392.885,523.975,270.755,048.744,798.632,761.642,835.21
YoY Growth---1.86%6.14%-1.09%15.73%4.80%4.40%5.21%73.76%-2.59%28.37%
Dividend Yield--5.25%4.83%4.22%4.14%3.36%4.61%3.61%3.76%2.23%2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,496.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,430.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,065.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,499.313,437.072,062.24
Cash Retained (M)3,065.763,065.763,065.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,499.31-3,437.07-2,062.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,433.55-371.311,003.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.122.122.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,148.15-175.18473.46
LTM Dividend per Share11,526.4311,526.4311,526.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,148.15-175.18473.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,378.2811,351.2511,999.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Fair Value$221,541.11$308,985.88$447,394.55
Upside / Downside76.67%146.40%256.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,496.5528,474.9729,488.2230,537.5231,624.1532,749.4633,731.94
Payout Ratio88.85%89.08%89.31%89.54%89.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,430.7925,365.5926,335.9927,343.3428,389.0329,474.5131,202.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Year 1 PV (M)23,397.9123,626.0523,854.20
Year 2 PV (M)22,408.5522,847.6823,291.06
Year 3 PV (M)21,460.8922,094.8022,741.07
Year 4 PV (M)20,553.1721,366.5922,203.91
Year 5 PV (M)19,683.7120,662.2421,679.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)477,615.02501,358.59526,037.19
Equity Value (M)585,119.25611,955.94639,806.74
Shares Outstanding (M)2.122.122.12
Fair Value$276,058.96$288,720.50$301,860.49
Upside / Downside120.14%130.24%140.72%

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