DDM Analysis: 1999.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.65 - $78.27	$40.87
Multi-Stage	$17.54 - $19.14	$18.33
Blended Fair Value	$29.60
Current Price	$5.66
Upside	422.90%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	18.57%	-0.48%	0.30	0.25	0.32	0.29	0.21	0.13	0.18	0.26	0.23	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	19.11%	-22.21%	9.43%	37.20%	68.44%	-27.98%	-32.99%	14.43%	59.51%	-53.83%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	4.41%	4.96%	3.41%	1.33%	2.99%	3.69%	4.21%	3.73%	2.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,873.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,232.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,641.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	774.75	484.22	290.53
Cash Retained (M)	1,641.52	1,641.52	1,641.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-774.75	-484.22	-290.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	866.77	1,157.31	1,350.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,911.72	3,911.72	3,911.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.30	0.35
LTM Dividend per Share	0.57	0.57	0.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.30	0.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.79	0.87	0.92
WACC / Discount Rate	8.76%	8.76%	8.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$25.65	$40.87	$78.27
Upside / Downside	353.24%	622.04%	1,282.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,873.74	4,125.53	4,393.69	4,679.28	4,983.43	5,307.35	5,466.57
Payout Ratio	57.62%	64.10%	70.57%	77.05%	83.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,232.21	2,644.44	3,100.83	3,605.37	4,162.40	4,776.62	5,056.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.76%	8.76%	8.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,408.66	2,431.49	2,454.32
Year 2 PV (M)	2,572.53	2,621.53	2,670.99
Year 3 PV (M)	2,724.42	2,802.63	2,882.32
Year 4 PV (M)	2,864.90	2,975.08	3,088.40
Year 5 PV (M)	2,994.52	3,139.16	3,289.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)	55,053.57	57,712.67	60,473.55
Equity Value (M)	68,618.59	71,682.55	74,858.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,911.72	3,911.72	3,911.72
Fair Value	$17.54	$18.33	$19.14
Upside / Downside	209.93%	223.76%	238.11%

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Man Wah Holdings Limited (1999.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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