DDM Analysis: 0830.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.45 - $104.06	$42.05
Multi-Stage	$11.33 - $12.39	$11.85
Blended Fair Value	$26.95
Current Price	$1.46
Upside	1,745.95%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	34.78%	26.72%	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.09	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	29.11%	38.00%	-0.16%	0.00%	-100.00%	20.00%	-77.73%	541.55%	27.27%	10.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.67%	3.43%	3.27%	3.58%	0.00%	3.14%	3.54%	9.87%	1.13%	0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,180.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	408.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	771.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	236.04	147.52	88.51
Cash Retained (M)	771.92	771.92	771.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-236.04	-147.52	-88.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	535.89	624.40	683.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,255.54	2,255.54	2,255.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.42	0.46	0.48
WACC / Discount Rate	7.66%	7.66%	7.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$20.45	$42.05	$104.06
Upside / Downside	1,300.71%	2,780.44%	7,027.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,180.18	1,256.89	1,338.59	1,425.59	1,518.26	1,616.94	1,665.45
Payout Ratio	34.59%	45.67%	56.76%	67.84%	78.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	408.25	574.07	759.72	967.08	1,198.19	1,455.25	1,540.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.66%	7.66%	7.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	528.22	533.23	538.24
Year 2 PV (M)	643.22	655.47	667.83
Year 3 PV (M)	753.38	775.01	797.05
Year 4 PV (M)	858.87	891.90	925.87
Year 5 PV (M)	959.82	1,006.18	1,054.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	21,806.99	22,860.28	23,953.88
Equity Value (M)	25,550.51	26,722.07	27,937.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,255.54	2,255.54	2,255.54
Fair Value	$11.33	$11.85	$12.39
Upside / Downside	675.88%	711.46%	748.36%

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China State Construction Development Holdings Limited (0830.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener