DDM Analysis: 002839.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$23.45 - $78.08	$38.25
Multi-Stage	$15.48 - $16.90	$16.18
Blended Fair Value	$27.21
Current Price	$4.30
Upside	532.81%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	25.80%	71.83%	0.39	0.36	0.30	0.22	0.17	0.12	0.08	0.08	0.09	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	7.74%	21.48%	34.95%	28.65%	38.63%	54.89%	-3.56%	-5.54%	-6.94%	5,326.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.13%	8.94%	6.62%	4.22%	3.68%	2.69%	1.34%	1.17%	0.36%	1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,964.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	866.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,098.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	392.93	245.58	147.35
Cash Retained (M)	1,098.48	1,098.48	1,098.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-392.93	-245.58	-147.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	705.55	852.90	951.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,284.66	2,284.66	2,284.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.37	0.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.38	0.38	0.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.37	0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.69	0.75	0.80
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$23.45	$38.25	$78.08
Upside / Downside	445.31%	789.46%	1,715.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,964.63	2,092.33	2,228.33	2,373.17	2,527.43	2,691.71	2,772.46
Payout Ratio	44.09%	53.27%	62.45%	71.63%	80.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	866.15	1,114.58	1,391.64	1,700.02	2,042.60	2,422.54	2,564.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,016.72	1,026.36	1,036.00
Year 2 PV (M)	1,158.01	1,180.07	1,202.33
Year 3 PV (M)	1,290.42	1,327.46	1,365.21
Year 4 PV (M)	1,414.34	1,468.73	1,524.67
Year 5 PV (M)	1,530.14	1,604.05	1,680.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	28,950.31	30,348.62	31,800.45
Equity Value (M)	35,359.94	36,955.28	38,609.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,284.66	2,284.66	2,284.66
Fair Value	$15.48	$16.18	$16.90
Upside / Downside	259.93%	276.17%	293.01%

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Financial Statements

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Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (002839.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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