Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Wabash National Corporation (WNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.73 - $81.93$66.94
Multi-Stage$110.16 - $121.44$115.69
Blended Fair Value$91.31
Current Price$9.87
Upside825.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.65%0.00%0.340.370.370.380.400.410.410.360.000.00
YoY Growth---6.82%-0.99%-2.53%-5.13%-2.66%0.16%16.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.11%1.27%1.52%2.58%2.14%5.74%2.96%1.71%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)260.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)246.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.0732.5419.53
Cash Retained (M)246.34246.34246.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.07-32.54-19.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)194.27213.79226.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.9842.9842.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.524.975.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.524.975.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.855.305.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$53.73$66.94$81.93
Upside / Downside444.36%578.20%730.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)260.35257.74255.17252.61250.09247.59255.02
Payout Ratio5.38%22.30%39.23%56.15%73.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0157.49100.10141.85182.75222.83235.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)53.2753.8154.35
Year 2 PV (M)85.9387.6989.47
Year 3 PV (M)112.83116.32119.88
Year 4 PV (M)134.68140.27146.02
Year 5 PV (M)152.15160.07168.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,195.634,414.104,641.59
Equity Value (M)4,734.494,972.265,219.63
Shares Outstanding (M)42.9842.9842.98
Fair Value$110.16$115.69$121.44
Upside / Downside1,016.08%1,072.13%1,130.44%

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