Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd (000419.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.74 - $42.20$39.51
Multi-Stage$176.59 - $196.05$186.12
Blended Fair Value$112.81
Current Price$5.76
Upside1,858.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.59%2.91%0.130.150.160.150.020.160.020.120.020.10
YoY Growth---11.15%-6.25%6.67%544.14%-85.45%940.45%-87.19%500.02%-80.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.32%3.13%2.69%2.86%0.50%3.89%0.29%2.14%0.25%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)128.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.7016.069.64
Cash Retained (M)123.86123.86123.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.70-16.06-9.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.16107.80114.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)543.00543.00543.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate-37.22%-37.22%-37.22%
Growth Rate-5.59%-4.59%-3.59%
Fair Value$35.74$39.51$42.20
Upside / Downside520.56%585.92%632.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)128.49122.59116.97111.60106.47101.59104.63
Payout Ratio3.60%20.88%38.16%55.44%72.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.6325.6044.6361.8777.4391.4396.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-37.22%-37.22%-37.22%
Growth Rate-5.59%-4.59%-3.59%
Year 1 PV (M)40.3540.7741.20
Year 2 PV (M)110.88113.24115.62
Year 3 PV (M)242.23250.01257.95
Year 4 PV (M)477.79498.35519.58
Year 5 PV (M)889.20937.30987.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,131.2399,223.20104,533.18
Equity Value (M)95,891.66101,062.86106,454.99
Shares Outstanding (M)543.00543.00543.00
Fair Value$176.59$186.12$196.05
Upside / Downside2,965.88%3,131.22%3,303.61%

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