Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gray Media, Inc. (GTN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.92 - $192.72$67.29
Multi-Stage$20.13 - $22.01$21.05
Blended Fair Value$44.17
Current Price$4.53
Upside875.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.330.310.310.320.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%0.00%-3.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.64%5.14%3.55%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8011.757.05
Cash Retained (M)62.0062.0062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.80-11.75-7.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2050.2554.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.92$67.29$192.72
Upside / Downside670.93%1,385.48%4,154.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.00100.11106.62113.55120.93128.79132.65
Payout Ratio34.04%45.23%56.43%67.62%78.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0045.2860.1676.7895.30115.91122.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.6041.9942.39
Year 2 PV (M)50.7651.7352.70
Year 3 PV (M)59.5161.2262.96
Year 4 PV (M)67.8570.4673.14
Year 5 PV (M)75.8079.4783.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,657.321,737.371,820.48
Equity Value (M)1,952.842,042.232,134.94
Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
Fair Value$20.13$21.05$22.01
Upside / Downside344.42%364.77%385.86%

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