Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Zheshang Bank Co., Ltd (601916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.32 - $23.53$15.02
Multi-Stage$7.77 - $8.47$8.11
Blended Fair Value$11.57
Current Price$2.98
Upside288.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.94%70.27%0.200.210.070.160.210.030.150.110.090.00
YoY Growth---3.77%184.15%-53.63%-25.38%553.11%-78.10%32.38%29.75%29,491.20%-70.23%
Dividend Yield--6.75%6.92%2.70%5.01%5.49%0.84%3.14%2.37%1.83%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,949.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,830.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,119.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,789.801,743.631,046.18
Cash Retained (M)5,119.005,119.005,119.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,789.80-1,743.63-1,046.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,329.203,375.384,072.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27,570.2527,570.2527,570.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.32$15.02$23.53
Upside / Downside246.27%404.14%689.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,949.0014,855.6915,821.3016,849.6917,944.9219,111.3419,684.68
Payout Ratio63.30%68.64%73.98%79.32%84.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,830.0010,197.1811,704.7913,365.3115,192.2417,200.2018,208.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,213.429,300.759,388.08
Year 2 PV (M)9,555.329,737.329,921.04
Year 3 PV (M)9,858.2810,141.2810,429.64
Year 4 PV (M)10,124.7610,514.1310,914.62
Year 5 PV (M)10,357.0810,857.3311,376.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)165,165.61173,143.18181,426.06
Equity Value (M)214,274.48223,693.99233,456.17
Shares Outstanding (M)27,570.2527,570.2527,570.25
Fair Value$7.77$8.11$8.47
Upside / Downside160.80%172.27%184.15%

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