DDM Analysis: GSMF.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.08 - $25.57	$21.78
Multi-Stage	$29.04 - $31.91	$30.45
Blended Fair Value	$26.11
Current Price	$97.00
Upside	-73.08%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.85%	3.45%	0.29	0.24	0.26	0.42	0.28	0.26	0.25	0.25	0.27	0.33
YoY Growth	-	-	21.21%	-8.33%	-38.21%	49.40%	6.85%	5.80%	0.00%	-8.88%	-18.29%	62.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.54%	0.48%	0.46%	0.42%	0.23%	0.23%	0.22%	0.19%	0.24%	0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	39,826.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9,251.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	30,575.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7,965.20	4,978.25	2,986.95
Cash Retained (M)	30,575.00	30,575.00	30,575.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7,965.20	-4,978.25	-2,986.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22,609.80	25,596.75	27,588.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	14,230.40	14,230.40	14,230.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.59	1.80	1.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.65	0.65	0.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.59	1.80	1.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.24	2.45	2.59
WACC / Discount Rate	9.46%	9.46%	9.46%
Growth Rate	-2.60%	-1.60%	-0.60%
Fair Value	$18.08	$21.78	$25.57
Upside / Downside	-81.36%	-77.55%	-73.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	39,826.00	39,187.45	38,559.13	37,940.89	37,332.57	36,733.99	37,836.01
Payout Ratio	23.23%	36.58%	49.94%	63.29%	76.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9,251.00	14,335.88	19,255.32	24,013.33	28,613.81	33,060.59	34,998.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.46%	9.46%	9.46%
Growth Rate	-2.60%	-1.60%	-0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	12,963.90	13,097.01	13,230.11
Year 2 PV (M)	15,746.13	16,071.13	16,399.45
Year 3 PV (M)	17,757.70	18,310.31	18,874.26
Year 4 PV (M)	19,134.69	19,932.72	20,755.46
Year 5 PV (M)	19,992.53	21,040.17	22,131.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	327,661.67	344,831.64	362,713.97
Equity Value (M)	413,256.62	433,282.97	454,104.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	14,230.40	14,230.40	14,230.40
Fair Value	$29.04	$30.45	$31.91
Upside / Downside	-70.06%	-68.61%	-67.10%

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PT Equity Development Investment Tbk (GSMF.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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