DDM Analysis: ALSTI.PA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$77.54 - $168.61	$111.08
Multi-Stage	$341.59 - $377.56	$359.21
Blended Fair Value	$235.15
Current Price	$65.00
Upside	261.76%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.20	0.17	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	14.32%	7.74%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	2.74%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	17.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	16.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.53	2.20	1.32
Cash Retained (M)	16.67	16.67	16.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.53	-2.20	-1.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.14	14.46	15.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4.08	4.08	4.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.22	3.55	3.76
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.22	3.55	3.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.46	3.78	4.00
WACC / Discount Rate	2.37%	2.37%	2.37%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$77.54	$111.08	$168.61
Upside / Downside	19.29%	70.89%	159.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	17.63	17.46	17.28	17.11	16.94	16.77	17.27
Payout Ratio	5.48%	22.38%	39.29%	56.19%	73.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.97	3.91	6.79	9.61	12.38	15.09	15.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	2.37%	2.37%	2.37%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.78	3.82	3.86
Year 2 PV (M)	6.35	6.48	6.61
Year 3 PV (M)	8.69	8.96	9.23
Year 4 PV (M)	10.82	11.27	11.73
Year 5 PV (M)	12.76	13.42	14.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,350.50	1,420.83	1,494.05
Equity Value (M)	1,392.90	1,464.78	1,539.60
Shares Outstanding (M)	4.08	4.08	4.08
Fair Value	$341.59	$359.21	$377.56
Upside / Downside	425.52%	452.64%	480.87%

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GPK	Graphic Packaging Holding Company	2.82%	$0.43	24.85%
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ORRF	Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.	2.81%	$0.98	26.05%
TXNM	TXNM Energy, Inc.	2.80%	$1.65	86.75%
STC	Stewart Information Services Corporation	2.79%	$1.95	54.56%
CVLY	Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc.	2.77%	$0.67	28.98%
KKRS	KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4.	2.77%	$0.49	7.61%
SHBI	Shore Bancshares, Inc.	2.77%	$0.48	28.28%
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STIF S.a. (ALSTI.PA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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