Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Visa Inc. (V)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.51 - $432.32$281.66
Multi-Stage$141.61 - $154.64$148.00
Blended Fair Value$214.83
Current Price$341.38
Upside-37.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.71%14.69%2.292.081.851.581.381.321.120.950.780.67
YoY Growth--9.89%12.42%17.11%14.47%5.03%17.41%18.30%21.47%16.96%14.70%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.66%0.71%0.76%0.64%0.60%0.60%0.72%0.68%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,058.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,634.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,424.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,011.602,507.251,504.35
Cash Retained (M)15,424.0015,424.0015,424.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,011.60-2,507.25-1,504.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,412.4012,916.7513,919.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,022.752,022.752,022.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.646.396.88
LTM Dividend per Share2.292.292.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.646.396.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.938.689.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$195.51$281.66$432.32
Upside / Downside-42.73%-17.49%26.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,058.0021,361.7722,750.2924,229.0525,803.9427,481.2028,305.63
Payout Ratio23.10%36.48%49.86%63.24%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,634.007,793.2911,343.7015,322.7419,771.1424,733.0826,182.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,032.297,098.957,165.61
Year 2 PV (M)9,236.509,412.439,590.02
Year 3 PV (M)11,258.1111,581.2911,910.60
Year 4 PV (M)13,108.0213,612.1114,130.61
Year 5 PV (M)14,796.5315,511.2116,253.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)231,000.68242,158.10253,742.54
Equity Value (M)286,432.13299,374.09312,792.61
Shares Outstanding (M)2,022.752,022.752,022.75
Fair Value$141.61$148.00$154.64
Upside / Downside-58.52%-56.65%-54.70%

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