Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Exxaro Resources Limited (EXX.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,408.64 - $14,204.33$13,311.54
Multi-Stage$2,051.81 - $2,243.95$2,146.12
Blended Fair Value$7,728.83
Current Price$146.92
Upside5,160.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.24%10.83%23.7822.7936.9552.4816.6124.061.029.222.594.07
YoY Growth--4.34%-38.31%-29.61%215.95%-30.97%2,253.04%-88.91%256.32%-36.48%-52.12%
Dividend Yield--15.06%11.15%17.00%34.33%11.96%18.35%0.74%5.69%2.89%9.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,250.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,862.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,388.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,450.002,156.251,293.75
Cash Retained (M)7,388.007,388.007,388.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,450.00-2,156.25-1,293.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,938.005,231.756,094.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)241.52241.52241.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.3121.6625.23
LTM Dividend per Share40.8340.8340.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.3121.6625.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.1462.5066.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,408.64$13,311.54$14,204.33
Upside / Downside3,581.35%8,960.40%9,568.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,250.0018,371.2519,565.3820,837.1322,191.5423,633.9924,343.01
Payout Ratio57.17%63.74%70.30%76.87%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,862.0011,709.2513,754.9716,017.1718,515.3421,270.6022,517.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,879.6610,982.7911,085.91
Year 2 PV (M)11,874.9712,101.1612,329.48
Year 3 PV (M)12,848.2813,217.1113,592.93
Year 4 PV (M)13,799.9414,330.6514,876.52
Year 5 PV (M)14,730.3115,441.7816,180.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)431,415.16452,252.67473,887.69
Equity Value (M)495,548.33518,326.17541,953.02
Shares Outstanding (M)241.52241.52241.52
Fair Value$2,051.81$2,146.12$2,243.95
Upside / Downside1,296.55%1,360.74%1,427.33%

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