Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fufeng Group Limited (0546.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.52 - $450.66$178.15
Multi-Stage$48.60 - $53.15$50.84
Blended Fair Value$114.49
Current Price$6.29
Upside1,720.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.64%26.49%0.480.510.430.120.130.290.130.150.040.06
YoY Growth---5.10%19.00%268.77%-7.71%-56.86%130.04%-13.20%297.88%-39.40%31.37%
Dividend Yield--9.39%12.58%10.22%5.30%5.16%9.53%4.37%3.41%1.08%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,710.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,754.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,956.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,142.07713.79428.28
Cash Retained (M)3,956.283,956.283,956.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,142.07-713.79-428.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,814.213,242.483,528.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,519.972,519.972,519.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.291.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.291.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$87.52$178.15$450.66
Upside / Downside1,291.36%2,732.26%7,064.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,710.356,081.526,476.826,897.817,346.177,823.678,058.38
Payout Ratio30.72%42.57%54.43%66.29%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,754.072,589.143,525.364,572.355,740.557,041.307,454.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,381.782,404.362,426.93
Year 2 PV (M)2,983.293,040.123,097.47
Year 3 PV (M)3,559.413,661.593,765.70
Year 4 PV (M)4,110.924,269.014,431.62
Year 5 PV (M)4,638.574,862.625,095.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)104,804.62109,866.72115,122.56
Equity Value (M)122,478.59128,104.41133,939.53
Shares Outstanding (M)2,519.972,519.972,519.97
Fair Value$48.60$50.84$53.15
Upside / Downside672.70%708.20%745.01%

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