Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$560.55 - $746.28$699.38
Multi-Stage$126.13 - $138.12$132.01
Blended Fair Value$415.69
Current Price$76.09
Upside446.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.37%22.73%1.171.150.990.530.490.450.280.250.250.15
YoY Growth--2.00%15.94%88.52%6.81%10.59%57.66%11.03%1.72%71.35%-3.48%
Dividend Yield--2.06%2.05%1.83%1.24%0.99%3.36%1.87%1.34%1.25%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0816.309.78
Cash Retained (M)84.4084.4084.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.08-16.30-9.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.3268.1074.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.7534.7534.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.681.962.15
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.681.962.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$560.55$699.38$746.28
Upside / Downside636.69%819.14%880.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.40138.88147.90157.52167.76178.66184.02
Payout Ratio35.28%46.22%57.17%68.11%79.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.0064.1984.55107.29132.62160.79170.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.9560.5261.09
Year 2 PV (M)73.7575.1676.57
Year 3 PV (M)87.4089.9192.47
Year 4 PV (M)100.91104.79108.78
Year 5 PV (M)114.27119.79125.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,946.644,137.264,335.18
Equity Value (M)4,382.924,587.434,799.61
Shares Outstanding (M)34.7534.7534.75
Fair Value$126.13$132.01$138.12
Upside / Downside65.76%73.49%81.52%

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