Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Vastned Belgium (VASTB.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.94 - $30.96$25.74
Multi-Stage$39.33 - $43.35$41.30
Blended Fair Value$33.52
Current Price$32.10
Upside4.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.05%5.67%2.201.081.050.981.391.361.251.171.201.30
YoY Growth--104.45%2.27%7.32%-29.31%1.75%8.78%6.94%-2.39%-7.72%2.65%
Dividend Yield--7.49%3.62%3.45%2.94%5.12%4.62%2.54%2.06%2.36%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.633.522.11
Cash Retained (M)26.4126.4126.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.63-3.52-2.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.7822.8924.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.6210.6210.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.962.162.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.962.162.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.122.322.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate-2.31%-1.31%-0.31%
Fair Value$20.94$25.74$30.96
Upside / Downside-34.76%-19.82%-3.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.1627.7927.4327.0726.7126.3627.15
Payout Ratio6.22%22.98%39.73%56.49%73.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.756.3910.9015.2919.5723.7325.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate-2.31%-1.31%-0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)5.885.946.00
Year 2 PV (M)9.239.419.61
Year 3 PV (M)11.9112.2812.65
Year 4 PV (M)14.0214.6015.20
Year 5 PV (M)15.6416.4617.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)360.86379.72399.35
Equity Value (M)417.53438.40460.12
Shares Outstanding (M)10.6210.6210.62
Fair Value$39.33$41.30$43.35
Upside / Downside22.54%28.66%35.03%

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