Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság (MOL.BD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15,209.79 - $72,835.10$33,061.94
Multi-Stage$8,468.61 - $9,243.92$8,849.25
Blended Fair Value$20,955.59
Current Price$2,698.00
Upside676.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.86%14.65%258.04303.71253.0978.620.00129.10114.1269.7063.2655.80
YoY Growth---15.03%20.00%221.92%5,940,300.00%-100.00%13.13%63.74%10.18%13.37%-15.13%
Dividend Yield--8.81%10.25%9.87%2.68%0.00%6.69%3.44%2.51%2.56%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)61,673.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,346.8034,591.7520,755.05
Cash Retained (M)61,673.0061,673.0061,673.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,346.80-34,591.75-20,755.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,326.2027,081.2540,917.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
LTM Dividend per Share284.62284.62284.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend292.99320.46338.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15,209.79$33,061.94$72,835.10
Upside / Downside463.74%1,125.42%2,599.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276,734.00294,721.71313,878.62334,280.73356,008.98379,149.56390,524.05
Payout Ratio77.71%80.17%82.63%85.09%87.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215,061.00236,281.88259,352.84284,424.74311,660.21341,234.61361,234.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)217,667.95219,731.15221,794.36
Year 2 PV (M)220,099.55224,291.83228,523.65
Year 3 PV (M)222,361.49228,744.69235,248.89
Year 4 PV (M)224,459.32233,091.39241,970.08
Year 5 PV (M)226,398.44237,333.57248,687.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,288,041.795,543,456.185,808,645.89
Equity Value (M)6,399,028.546,686,648.826,984,870.08
Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
Fair Value$8,468.61$8,849.25$9,243.92
Upside / Downside213.88%227.99%242.62%

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