Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.68 - $77.62$60.34
Multi-Stage$58.63 - $63.95$61.24
Blended Fair Value$60.79
Current Price$122.10
Upside-50.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.99%15.87%3.443.353.313.203.130.802.540.460.411.65
YoY Growth--2.86%1.26%3.31%2.24%292.61%-68.63%457.90%11.21%-75.24%109.67%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.74%1.84%2.08%1.85%0.86%2.32%0.42%0.48%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.4517.1610.29
Cash Retained (M)13.4413.4413.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.45-17.16-10.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-14.01-3.723.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.110.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.543.543.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.110.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.143.433.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate2.26%3.26%4.26%
Fair Value$46.68$60.34$77.62
Upside / Downside-61.77%-50.59%-36.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.26141.73146.34151.11156.03161.11165.94
Payout Ratio90.21%90.17%90.12%90.08%90.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.82127.79131.89136.12140.49145.00153.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate2.26%3.26%4.26%
Year 1 PV (M)115.96117.10118.23
Year 2 PV (M)108.61110.74112.90
Year 3 PV (M)101.72104.74107.81
Year 4 PV (M)95.2799.05102.95
Year 5 PV (M)89.2393.6898.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,540.981,617.811,697.68
Equity Value (M)2,051.772,143.122,237.88
Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
Fair Value$58.63$61.24$63.95
Upside / Downside-51.98%-49.84%-47.63%

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