Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.05 - $6.03$4.99
Multi-Stage$7.12 - $7.81$7.46
Blended Fair Value$6.23
Current Price$3.96
Upside57.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.24%-1.48%0.310.360.550.250.340.390.320.380.290.37
YoY Growth---12.68%-35.45%120.00%-26.69%-11.43%20.31%-15.79%33.33%-21.92%1.40%
Dividend Yield--7.26%7.41%10.92%3.74%7.37%10.55%6.57%8.04%6.80%10.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)983.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)617.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.65122.9073.74
Cash Retained (M)365.81365.81365.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.65-122.90-73.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)169.16242.90292.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,986.751,986.751,986.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Fair Value$4.05$4.99$6.03
Upside / Downside2.29%26.10%52.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)983.23979.29975.37971.45967.56963.68992.59
Payout Ratio62.80%68.24%73.68%79.12%84.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)617.43668.23718.62768.60818.16867.31918.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)611.19617.38623.58
Year 2 PV (M)601.16613.42625.80
Year 3 PV (M)588.07606.15624.59
Year 4 PV (M)572.55596.14620.44
Year 5 PV (M)555.13583.86613.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,222.9511,803.7312,408.31
Equity Value (M)14,151.0614,820.6815,516.49
Shares Outstanding (M)1,986.751,986.751,986.75
Fair Value$7.12$7.46$7.81
Upside / Downside79.87%88.38%97.22%

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