Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Honeywell International Inc. (HON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.08 - $176.61$137.95
Multi-Stage$230.62 - $253.70$241.94
Blended Fair Value$189.94
Current Price$210.50
Upside-9.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.51%6.75%4.494.424.214.064.013.783.513.282.962.67
YoY Growth--1.65%5.00%3.54%1.31%6.14%7.48%7.22%10.65%10.95%14.30%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.19%2.20%2.09%1.85%2.82%2.18%2.37%2.48%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,129.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,955.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,174.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,225.80766.13459.68
Cash Retained (M)3,174.003,174.003,174.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,225.80-766.13-459.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,948.202,407.882,714.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)646.55646.55646.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.013.724.20
LTM Dividend per Share4.574.574.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.013.724.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.588.298.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Fair Value$107.08$137.95$176.61
Upside / Downside-49.13%-34.47%-16.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,129.006,137.826,146.656,155.506,164.366,173.236,358.42
Payout Ratio48.21%56.57%64.93%73.29%81.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,955.003,472.213,990.904,511.085,032.755,555.905,881.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Year 1 PV (M)3,237.903,270.563,303.22
Year 2 PV (M)3,470.463,540.823,611.89
Year 3 PV (M)3,658.093,769.903,883.97
Year 4 PV (M)3,805.723,961.614,122.23
Year 5 PV (M)3,917.834,119.444,329.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,020.46137,762.69144,779.67
Equity Value (M)149,110.47156,425.02164,030.24
Shares Outstanding (M)646.55646.55646.55
Fair Value$230.62$241.94$253.70
Upside / Downside9.56%14.93%20.52%

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