Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.38 - $124.34$96.35
Multi-Stage$77.74 - $85.03$81.32
Blended Fair Value$88.83
Current Price$122.59
Upside-27.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.66%5.06%1.481.461.551.421.271.231.131.091.050.98
YoY Growth--1.02%-5.51%9.21%11.91%2.57%8.74%4.22%3.70%6.97%8.86%
Dividend Yield--1.23%1.23%1.40%1.37%1.18%1.85%1.46%1.72%1.86%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)845.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)639.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.10105.6963.41
Cash Retained (M)639.92639.92639.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.10-105.69-63.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)470.81534.23576.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.19138.19138.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.413.874.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.413.874.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.895.355.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$74.38$96.35$124.34
Upside / Downside-39.33%-21.40%1.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)845.50879.79915.47952.59991.221,031.421,062.36
Payout Ratio24.32%37.45%50.59%63.73%76.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.59329.50463.13607.05761.89928.28982.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)297.11299.99302.87
Year 2 PV (M)376.54383.89391.30
Year 3 PV (M)445.04458.12471.45
Year 4 PV (M)503.64523.47543.89
Year 5 PV (M)553.30580.67609.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,566.988,990.779,431.18
Equity Value (M)10,742.6111,236.9211,749.81
Shares Outstanding (M)138.19138.19138.19
Fair Value$77.74$81.32$85.03
Upside / Downside-36.59%-33.67%-30.64%

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