Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.87 - $575.05$229.27
Multi-Stage$80.84 - $88.40$84.55
Blended Fair Value$156.91
Current Price$35.06
Upside347.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.26%9.27%1.482.935.322.070.400.220.230.200.350.62
YoY Growth---49.57%-45.01%156.96%411.67%83.57%-6.04%17.32%-42.53%-44.19%2.59%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.74%10.51%3.50%1.85%3.19%0.74%0.63%0.83%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,719.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)613.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,106.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.80339.88203.93
Cash Retained (M)2,106.002,106.002,106.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.80-339.88-203.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,562.201,766.131,902.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.433.753.96
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$131.87$229.27$575.05
Upside / Downside276.14%553.92%1,540.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,719.002,895.743,083.963,284.423,497.903,725.273,837.02
Payout Ratio22.55%36.04%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)613.001,043.511,527.392,069.772,676.213,352.743,549.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)955.01964.07973.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,279.311,303.681,328.28
Year 3 PV (M)1,586.581,632.131,678.54
Year 4 PV (M)1,877.471,949.682,023.94
Year 5 PV (M)2,152.622,256.592,364.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,484.7245,585.0547,765.76
Equity Value (M)51,335.7253,691.1956,134.18
Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
Fair Value$80.84$84.55$88.40
Upside / Downside130.59%141.17%152.14%

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