Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Equipment & ServicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.04 - $23.61$18.23
Multi-Stage$51.31 - $56.66$53.93
Blended Fair Value$36.08
Current Price$20.93
Upside72.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%12.080.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25,081.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--55.67%0.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.6519.1611.49
Cash Retained (M)121.25121.25121.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.65-19.16-11.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.60102.10109.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.78127.78127.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.04$18.23$23.61
Upside / Downside-32.94%-12.90%12.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153.24151.71150.19148.69147.20145.73150.10
Payout Ratio20.88%34.70%48.53%62.35%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.9952.6472.8892.71112.13131.16138.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)49.7750.2850.79
Year 2 PV (M)65.1566.4967.84
Year 3 PV (M)78.3680.7883.25
Year 4 PV (M)89.6093.3297.15
Year 5 PV (M)99.09104.25109.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,174.636,496.166,830.94
Equity Value (M)6,556.616,891.287,239.59
Shares Outstanding (M)127.78127.78127.78
Fair Value$51.31$53.93$56.66
Upside / Downside145.16%157.67%170.70%

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