Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA (CEEB3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$237.81 - $960.76$406.57
Multi-Stage$150.01 - $163.89$156.82
Blended Fair Value$281.70
Current Price$37.49
Upside651.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.83%48.78%2.714.456.396.530.434.081.230.030.471.14
YoY Growth---39.02%-30.35%-2.16%1,427.68%-89.52%232.82%3,984.04%-93.62%-58.80%2,136.97%
Dividend Yield--7.04%11.41%16.59%17.65%1.07%10.47%4.15%0.12%2.10%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,085.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)792.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,293.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)417.00260.63156.38
Cash Retained (M)1,293.001,293.001,293.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-417.00-260.63-156.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)876.001,032.381,136.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.10262.10262.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.343.944.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.023.023.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.343.944.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.366.967.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$237.81$406.57$960.76
Upside / Downside534.32%984.48%2,462.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,085.002,220.532,364.862,518.572,682.282,856.632,942.33
Payout Ratio37.99%48.39%58.79%69.19%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)792.001,074.481,390.331,742.712,135.022,570.972,721.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)982.60991.921,001.23
Year 2 PV (M)1,162.731,184.881,207.24
Year 3 PV (M)1,332.811,371.071,410.05
Year 4 PV (M)1,493.221,550.651,609.72
Year 5 PV (M)1,644.371,723.801,806.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,700.3934,279.8335,919.72
Equity Value (M)39,316.1341,102.1442,954.21
Shares Outstanding (M)262.10262.10262.10
Fair Value$150.01$156.82$163.89
Upside / Downside300.12%318.30%337.15%

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