Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aurizon Holdings Limited (AZJ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.16 - $4.70$3.89
Multi-Stage$6.88 - $7.55$7.21
Blended Fair Value$5.55
Current Price$3.03
Upside83.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.38%-2.84%0.160.180.180.250.290.280.270.250.300.29
YoY Growth---8.90%-0.91%-28.21%-13.33%2.92%5.37%5.52%-16.27%4.33%33.59%
Dividend Yield--5.40%4.92%4.63%6.65%7.83%5.76%4.98%5.88%5.67%6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)709.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)623.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.8088.6353.18
Cash Retained (M)86.0086.0086.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.80-88.63-53.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-55.80-2.6332.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,814.491,814.491,814.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.48%-1.48%-0.48%
Fair Value$3.16$3.89$4.70
Upside / Downside4.15%28.37%54.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)709.00698.50688.16677.97667.93658.03677.77
Payout Ratio87.87%88.30%88.72%89.15%89.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)623.00616.75610.55604.39598.29592.23626.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.48%-1.48%-0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)569.60575.44581.28
Year 2 PV (M)520.76531.49542.34
Year 3 PV (M)476.10490.90506.00
Year 4 PV (M)435.26453.39472.08
Year 5 PV (M)397.91418.74440.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,079.5310,607.0411,156.40
Equity Value (M)12,479.1613,076.9913,698.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,814.491,814.491,814.49
Fair Value$6.88$7.21$7.55
Upside / Downside126.98%137.85%149.16%

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