Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aramark (ARMK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.10 - $23.28$18.17
Multi-Stage$19.73 - $21.64$20.66
Blended Fair Value$19.42
Current Price$39.00
Upside-50.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.01%3.07%0.410.370.430.420.420.410.410.390.380.34
YoY Growth--10.93%-12.84%1.32%0.99%1.01%2.26%5.16%2.28%9.49%12.43%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.00%1.52%1.42%1.57%1.49%1.29%1.86%1.22%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)326.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.2840.8024.48
Cash Retained (M)215.57215.57215.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.28-40.80-24.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)150.29174.77191.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.56267.56267.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.650.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.650.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Fair Value$14.10$18.17$23.28
Upside / Downside-63.85%-53.40%-40.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)326.39333.15340.05347.09354.28361.61372.46
Payout Ratio33.95%45.16%56.37%67.58%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.82150.46191.69234.57279.14325.45344.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)137.87139.23140.59
Year 2 PV (M)160.94164.14167.38
Year 3 PV (M)180.46185.87191.38
Year 4 PV (M)196.77204.67212.81
Year 5 PV (M)210.21220.82231.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,392.664,614.304,844.81
Equity Value (M)5,278.915,529.045,788.83
Shares Outstanding (M)267.56267.56267.56
Fair Value$19.73$20.66$21.64
Upside / Downside-49.41%-47.01%-44.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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