Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fleury Michon S.A. (ALFLE.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$179.63 - $301.14$232.97
Multi-Stage$376.97 - $415.19$395.70
Blended Fair Value$314.34
Current Price$25.50
Upside1,132.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.97%1.08%1.321.231.221.020.831.261.161.151.221.22
YoY Growth--8.09%0.48%19.24%23.90%-34.59%9.19%0.36%-5.47%0.00%2.37%
Dividend Yield--4.82%6.16%6.66%4.37%2.99%3.99%2.99%2.46%1.89%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.467.794.67
Cash Retained (M)51.9151.9151.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.46-7.79-4.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4444.1247.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
LTM Dividend per Share2.552.552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.2013.3514.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Fair Value$179.63$232.97$301.14
Upside / Downside604.42%813.62%1,080.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.3262.5362.7462.9463.1563.3665.26
Payout Ratio16.71%31.37%46.03%60.69%75.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4219.6228.8838.2047.5857.0260.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Year 1 PV (M)18.3118.4918.68
Year 2 PV (M)25.1525.6626.18
Year 3 PV (M)31.0532.0032.97
Year 4 PV (M)36.1037.5839.10
Year 5 PV (M)40.3842.4644.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,389.411,460.771,535.03
Equity Value (M)1,540.411,616.961,696.57
Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
Fair Value$376.97$395.70$415.19
Upside / Downside1,378.31%1,451.78%1,528.18%

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