Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk (ACES.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$446.35 - $683.45$557.06
Multi-Stage$574.32 - $626.59$599.98
Blended Fair Value$578.52
Current Price$496.00
Upside16.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.47%18.82%33.4831.0420.5832.1318.0528.2322.7316.4115.3415.92
YoY Growth--7.86%50.85%-35.96%77.96%-36.04%24.20%38.49%6.95%-3.59%166.67%
Dividend Yield--6.70%3.41%4.30%3.13%1.18%2.17%1.26%1.23%1.86%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)819,151.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573,533.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)245,618.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163,830.26102,393.9161,436.35
Cash Retained (M)245,618.26245,618.26245,618.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-163,830.26-102,393.91-61,436.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)81,788.00143,224.34184,181.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
LTM Dividend per Share33.4833.4833.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.2541.8444.23
WACC / Discount Rate10.17%10.17%10.17%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Fair Value$446.35$557.06$683.45
Upside / Downside-10.01%12.31%37.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)819,151.31839,397.55860,144.19881,403.61903,188.48925,511.78953,277.14
Payout Ratio70.02%74.01%78.01%82.01%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573,533.06621,258.41670,992.57722,805.68776,770.13832,960.61881,781.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.17%10.17%10.17%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)558,416.94563,920.12569,423.31
Year 2 PV (M)542,113.62552,851.30563,694.28
Year 3 PV (M)524,904.71540,576.92556,558.01
Year 4 PV (M)507,034.77527,319.43548,206.73
Year 5 PV (M)488,715.36513,276.09538,814.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,217,826.287,580,563.117,957,739.21
Equity Value (M)9,839,011.6910,278,506.9810,734,436.03
Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
Fair Value$574.32$599.98$626.59
Upside / Downside15.79%20.96%26.33%

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