Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ambev S.A. (ABEV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.86 - $43.43$28.50
Multi-Stage$15.72 - $17.10$16.40
Blended Fair Value$22.45
Current Price$12.09
Upside85.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.42%-10.32%0.260.760.780.710.440.500.560.560.660.73
YoY Growth---65.98%-2.62%10.14%62.26%-12.97%-10.70%-0.06%-14.62%-10.09%-4.72%
Dividend Yield--1.91%6.47%5.66%4.71%2.90%4.23%3.34%2.31%3.59%3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,037.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,642.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,394.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,207.412,004.631,202.78
Cash Retained (M)1,394.431,394.431,394.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,207.41-2,004.63-1,202.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,812.99-610.20191.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,720.8315,720.8315,720.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.040.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.040.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.86$28.50$43.43
Upside / Downside64.26%135.73%259.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,037.0717,079.4818,189.6519,371.9720,631.1521,972.1822,631.34
Payout Ratio91.30%91.04%90.78%90.52%90.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,642.6415,549.8416,513.1017,535.8918,621.8819,774.9620,933.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,024.4614,157.3914,290.32
Year 2 PV (M)13,432.2613,688.1113,946.37
Year 3 PV (M)12,864.9713,234.2713,610.58
Year 4 PV (M)12,321.5312,795.3813,282.77
Year 5 PV (M)11,800.9412,370.9312,962.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)182,761.50191,588.95200,754.25
Equity Value (M)247,205.65257,835.03268,847.02
Shares Outstanding (M)15,720.8315,720.8315,720.83
Fair Value$15.72$16.40$17.10
Upside / Downside30.06%35.66%41.45%

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