Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. (601555.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118.61 - $139.75$130.96
Multi-Stage$24.75 - $27.08$25.89
Blended Fair Value$78.43
Current Price$9.80
Upside700.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.31%20.63%0.470.410.400.390.410.380.430.320.300.13
YoY Growth--15.63%2.46%0.47%-4.68%8.83%-10.81%33.40%7.32%121.08%87.14%
Dividend Yield--6.00%5.74%5.72%5.25%4.47%5.01%4.44%4.30%2.67%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,469.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,316.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,153.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)693.87433.67260.20
Cash Retained (M)1,153.091,153.091,153.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-693.87-433.67-260.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)459.22719.42892.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,937.314,937.314,937.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$118.61$130.96$139.75
Upside / Downside1,110.33%1,236.34%1,325.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,469.343,694.853,935.014,190.794,463.194,753.294,895.89
Payout Ratio66.76%71.41%76.06%80.71%85.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,316.252,638.512,992.893,382.193,809.454,277.974,528.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,466.232,489.602,512.98
Year 2 PV (M)2,614.792,664.602,714.87
Year 3 PV (M)2,761.962,841.252,922.04
Year 4 PV (M)2,907.743,019.563,134.58
Year 5 PV (M)3,052.133,199.553,352.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,372.69113,607.13119,041.90
Equity Value (M)122,175.53127,821.68133,678.98
Shares Outstanding (M)4,937.314,937.314,937.31
Fair Value$24.75$25.89$27.08
Upside / Downside152.50%164.17%176.28%

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