Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Motion Technology Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. (4589.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.71 - $55.57$46.28
Multi-Stage$70.66 - $77.51$74.02
Blended Fair Value$60.15
Current Price$40.10
Upside50.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%1.581.480.680.390.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%117.27%73.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.59%3.34%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.9915.629.37
Cash Retained (M)40.6440.6440.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.99-15.62-9.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6525.0231.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.8725.8725.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.971.21
LTM Dividend per Share3.263.263.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.971.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.864.234.47
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$37.71$46.28$55.57
Upside / Downside-5.95%15.42%38.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124.93123.68122.44121.22120.01118.81122.37
Payout Ratio67.47%71.98%76.48%80.99%85.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.2989.0293.6598.17102.60106.93113.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)81.5782.4083.23
Year 2 PV (M)78.6280.2381.86
Year 3 PV (M)75.5277.8580.23
Year 4 PV (M)72.3175.3178.40
Year 5 PV (M)69.0572.6576.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,451.031,526.591,605.26
Equity Value (M)1,828.091,915.022,005.37
Shares Outstanding (M)25.8725.8725.87
Fair Value$70.66$74.02$77.51
Upside / Downside76.20%84.58%93.29%

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