Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Modern Mills for Food Products Co. (2284.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.62 - $40.17$32.31
Multi-Stage$64.81 - $71.23$67.96
Blended Fair Value$50.13
Current Price$32.30
Upside55.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.991.722.184.970.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.73%-21.06%-56.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.01%2.78%3.50%7.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.9026.8116.09
Cash Retained (M)0.990.990.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.90-26.81-16.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-41.91-25.83-15.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.2381.2381.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.52-0.32-0.19
LTM Dividend per Share2.632.632.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.52-0.32-0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.312.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.62$32.31$40.17
Upside / Downside-20.68%0.02%24.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.49212.35210.22208.12206.04203.98210.10
Payout Ratio99.54%97.63%95.72%93.82%91.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.50207.32201.23195.25189.37183.58194.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)193.46195.43197.41
Year 2 PV (M)175.23178.83182.46
Year 3 PV (M)158.66163.56168.57
Year 4 PV (M)143.59149.54155.68
Year 5 PV (M)129.90136.66143.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,463.794,696.234,938.25
Equity Value (M)5,264.625,520.255,786.06
Shares Outstanding (M)81.2381.2381.23
Fair Value$64.81$67.96$71.23
Upside / Downside100.66%110.41%120.54%

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