Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (1157.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.62 - $5.34$4.45
Multi-Stage$6.06 - $6.62$6.33
Blended Fair Value$5.39
Current Price$5.32
Upside1.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.46%4.12%0.390.380.420.450.300.400.310.310.310.23
YoY Growth--3.16%-10.32%-6.17%51.01%-25.46%28.23%2.51%-0.82%31.10%-10.36%
Dividend Yield--7.35%7.80%11.67%11.17%3.20%7.79%9.04%12.71%8.34%9.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,997.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,581.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)415.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)799.42499.64299.78
Cash Retained (M)415.80415.80415.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-799.42-499.64-299.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)-383.62-83.84116.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,745.878,745.878,745.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$3.62$4.45$5.34
Upside / Downside-31.93%-16.43%0.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,997.113,996.433,995.753,995.073,994.393,993.714,113.52
Payout Ratio89.60%89.68%89.76%89.84%89.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,581.313,583.923,586.523,589.133,591.733,594.343,805.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)3,255.823,288.723,321.61
Year 2 PV (M)2,959.923,020.033,080.74
Year 3 PV (M)2,690.912,773.292,857.34
Year 4 PV (M)2,446.342,546.712,650.14
Year 5 PV (M)2,224.002,338.642,457.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,396.3341,427.0143,540.57
Equity Value (M)52,973.3455,394.4057,908.35
Shares Outstanding (M)8,745.878,745.878,745.87
Fair Value$6.06$6.33$6.62
Upside / Downside13.85%19.06%24.46%

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