Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (0081.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.30 - $101.16$68.07
Multi-Stage$14.38 - $15.73$15.04
Blended Fair Value$41.55
Current Price$1.62
Upside2,465.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.56%9.65%0.130.180.170.280.230.150.050.020.000.01
YoY Growth---29.99%10.08%-41.18%23.00%57.51%201.75%203.37%0.00%-100.00%-89.53%
Dividend Yield--7.76%8.10%5.59%8.80%6.60%3.05%2.15%0.45%0.00%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,820.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,108.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)712.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)364.10227.56136.54
Cash Retained (M)712.41712.41712.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-364.10-227.56-136.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)348.31484.84575.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Fair Value$25.30$68.07$101.16
Upside / Downside1,462.03%4,101.59%6,144.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,820.521,928.092,042.012,162.672,290.462,425.802,498.57
Payout Ratio60.87%66.69%72.52%78.35%84.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,108.111,285.921,480.881,694.391,927.962,183.222,311.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,194.861,206.251,217.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,278.571,303.061,327.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,359.311,398.551,438.54
Year 4 PV (M)1,437.161,492.751,549.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,512.191,585.651,661.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,403.8046,560.8348,800.89
Equity Value (M)51,185.8853,547.0955,996.72
Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
Fair Value$14.38$15.04$15.73
Upside / Downside787.69%828.64%871.12%

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