Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC Yakutsk Fuel and Energy Company (YAKG.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.88 - $7.07$5.94
Multi-Stage$7.79 - $8.57$8.17
Blended Fair Value$7.06
Current Price$50.70
Upside-86.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.610.000.000.000.000.771.90
YoY Growth---100.00%-61.82%-99.99%0.00%-100.00%-70.62%-84.49%-99.57%-59.46%93.84%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.04%4.85%11.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)557.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)557.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)111.4269.6441.78
Cash Retained (M)557.00557.00557.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-111.42-69.64-41.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)445.58487.37515.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)826.92826.92826.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.590.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.590.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.88$5.94$7.07
Upside / Downside-90.37%-88.28%-86.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)557.09551.52546.01540.55535.14529.79545.68
Payout Ratio0.02%18.01%36.01%54.01%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0999.34196.61291.93385.32476.81504.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)90.3791.2992.22
Year 2 PV (M)162.70166.04169.41
Year 3 PV (M)219.76226.56233.49
Year 4 PV (M)263.86274.80286.07
Year 5 PV (M)297.03312.49328.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,404.475,685.905,978.92
Equity Value (M)6,438.206,757.087,088.71
Shares Outstanding (M)826.92826.92826.92
Fair Value$7.79$8.17$8.57
Upside / Downside-84.64%-83.88%-83.09%

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