Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

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Sector

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$406.11 - $478.47$448.39
Multi-Stage$156.06 - $171.09$163.43
Blended Fair Value$305.91
Current Price$175.80
Upside74.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.54%17.77%1.171.050.940.850.770.680.590.510.360.26
YoY Growth--11.70%11.35%10.36%10.17%14.18%14.76%15.59%42.60%40.24%12.03%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.61%0.68%0.61%0.72%0.87%0.67%0.71%0.61%0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)622.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)324.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.4177.7646.65
Cash Retained (M)297.10297.10297.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.41-77.76-46.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.69219.34250.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)258.56258.56258.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.850.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.850.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.922.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate4.63%4.63%4.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$406.11$448.39$478.47
Upside / Downside131.01%155.06%172.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)622.05662.49705.55751.41800.25852.27877.83
Payout Ratio52.24%59.79%67.34%74.90%82.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)324.96396.11475.14562.77659.79767.04812.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.63%4.63%4.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)375.03378.59382.14
Year 2 PV (M)425.93434.04442.23
Year 3 PV (M)477.64491.35505.32
Year 4 PV (M)530.19550.58571.55
Year 5 PV (M)583.58611.77641.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,957.2039,790.5441,694.06
Equity Value (M)40,349.5742,256.8744,236.34
Shares Outstanding (M)258.56258.56258.56
Fair Value$156.06$163.43$171.09
Upside / Downside-11.23%-7.03%-2.68%

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