Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Voestalpine AG (VAS.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.15 - $9.34$6.89
Multi-Stage$7.43 - $8.14$7.78
Blended Fair Value$7.33
Current Price$30.38
Upside-75.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.58%-6.30%0.230.500.410.170.070.430.530.430.410.39
YoY Growth---53.34%20.07%139.87%150.14%-83.92%-19.80%23.63%4.77%4.35%-10.96%
Dividend Yield--0.97%1.96%1.25%0.85%0.20%2.23%1.94%1.09%1.01%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)188.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.6023.5014.10
Cash Retained (M)85.1085.1085.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.60-23.50-14.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.5061.6071.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)519.24519.24519.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Fair Value$5.15$6.89$9.34
Upside / Downside-83.06%-77.32%-69.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)188.00192.65197.42202.30207.30212.43218.80
Payout Ratio54.73%61.79%68.84%75.89%82.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.90119.03135.90153.53171.95191.19202.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)109.97111.05112.14
Year 2 PV (M)116.00118.29120.61
Year 3 PV (M)121.07124.68128.37
Year 4 PV (M)125.27130.28135.44
Year 5 PV (M)128.68135.14141.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,255.173,418.763,588.86
Equity Value (M)3,856.154,038.214,227.29
Shares Outstanding (M)519.24519.24519.24
Fair Value$7.43$7.78$8.14
Upside / Downside-75.55%-74.40%-73.20%

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