Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Turnkey Communication Services Public Company Limited (TKC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.92 - $1.20$1.07
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.62$3.43
Blended Fair Value$2.25
Current Price$9.70
Upside-76.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-24.58%0.00%0.150.300.371.390.400.610.130.300.000.00
YoY Growth---49.98%-20.02%-73.08%248.26%-34.93%364.73%-55.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.11%1.58%5.31%2.22%3.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.2214.518.71
Cash Retained (M)36.1136.1136.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.22-14.51-8.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8921.6027.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-14.98%-13.98%-12.98%
Fair Value$0.92$1.07$1.20
Upside / Downside-90.49%-88.96%-87.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.1199.8885.9273.9163.5854.6956.34
Payout Ratio68.90%73.12%77.34%81.56%85.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.0073.0366.4560.2854.5449.2252.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-14.98%-13.98%-12.98%
Year 1 PV (M)67.8368.6369.43
Year 2 PV (M)57.3258.6860.05
Year 3 PV (M)48.2950.0251.78
Year 4 PV (M)40.5842.5244.53
Year 5 PV (M)34.0236.0638.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,052.831,116.221,182.63
Equity Value (M)1,300.871,372.131,446.62
Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
Fair Value$3.25$3.43$3.62
Upside / Downside-66.47%-64.64%-62.72%

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