DDM Analysis: TCN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.29 - $76.91	$72.07
Multi-Stage	$11.72 - $12.82	$12.26
Blended Fair Value	$42.17
Current Price	$9.10
Upside	363.36%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	37.42%	23.92%	0.33	0.20	0.14	0.12	0.11	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	61.43%	48.53%	12.30%	12.33%	61.99%	7.65%	7.35%	9.03%	-4.88%	45.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.60%	2.62%	0.86%	0.93%	0.83%	0.51%	0.48%	0.44%	0.41%	0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	113.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	60.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	52.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	22.63	14.14	8.48
Cash Retained (M)	52.24	52.24	52.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-22.63	-14.14	-8.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	29.61	38.09	43.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	292.56	292.56	292.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.13	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.21	0.21	0.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.13	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.34	0.36
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$35.29	$72.07	$76.91
Upside / Downside	287.82%	692.00%	745.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	113.13	120.49	128.32	136.66	145.54	155.00	159.65
Payout Ratio	53.83%	61.06%	68.30%	75.53%	82.77%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	60.90	73.57	87.64	103.22	120.46	139.50	147.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	68.48	69.13	69.78
Year 2 PV (M)	75.93	77.38	78.84
Year 3 PV (M)	83.24	85.63	88.07
Year 4 PV (M)	90.42	93.90	97.48
Year 5 PV (M)	97.47	102.18	107.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,012.86	3,158.38	3,309.48
Equity Value (M)	3,428.41	3,586.60	3,750.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	292.56	292.56	292.56
Fair Value	$11.72	$12.26	$12.82
Upside / Downside	28.78%	34.72%	40.88%

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Tricon Residential Inc. (TCN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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